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Fourth Quarter Letter 2018


2018 Year End Letter

A year ago, we wrote that the capital markets party would soon end given that high valuations for most financial assets were vulnerable in the context of rising interest rates, modest growth and U.S. trade wars. Throughout 2018, the US equity market marched upward and onward, driven by President Trump’s tax cuts, while global markets stalled. This “disconnect” between the US and the rest of the world was bound to end and did so abruptly and with brutality in October as talk of inflation and synchronized global growth turned to that of an impending recession. This U-turn unleashed an avalanche of selling across global equity markets during the last quarter of 2018, with never-before-seen speed and depth as investor sentiment turned on a dime from euphoria to fear.